North American polyolefin industry production prospects are promising
At a recent global plastics conference in Chicago, USA, analysts said that prospects for polyolefin producers in North America are promising.
Nick Wofiadis, head of global plastics and polyolefins at IHS Chemicals, said that global polyethylene (PE) capacity will increase more than new demand in 2016
3.7 million tons, the global PE device utilization rate will drop from 86% in 2015 to 84% in 2016, but the utilization rate of PE devices in North America will remain
The highest level in the world.
Wolfiadis pointed out that from January to September 2015, the utilization rate of PE equipment in North America was generally above 94%, and the output increased by 5% year-on-year.
The ratio increased by 4.5%, with local demand increasing by 3.1% and export demand increasing by 8.7%. North American PE capacity will increase by 2 million tons per year in the next 12 months, an increase of more than
10%. However, PE demand in North America will continue to grow at a level close to GDP growth. Therefore, IHS expects North American PE equipment utilization to fall below 90%.
Prices will fall by 5 cents/lb ($110/ton) or more.
IHS also predicts that North American PE exports will increase rapidly by 2020. Most of the newly added PE exports in the US will flow to Canada, Mexico and Latin America.
field. But in the long run, the Latin American market is not capable of absorbing the growing number of US products, so the US PE will also flow to China and other markets.
According to Joel Morales, head of polyolefins business in North America, IHS Chemicals, PE producers in North America will increasingly rely on exports, but polypropylene (PP) in the region.
The market is getting tighter and dependence on imports will increase. He said that the sharp drop in crude oil prices has significantly affected the PP market. First, the price of naphtha
The decline has increased the competitiveness of PP producers in Western Europe, South America and Asia. China and the Middle East are planning to implement large-scale PP expansion. In the short term, North America
Regional PP prices will be under downward pressure. Second, the tight supply of propylene has dispelled the investment enthusiasm of North American producers for new PP capacity. Supply shortage
And the drop in raw material prices has improved the gross profit of PP production in North America, and as the propylene project in the region is put into production, the supply of propylene will be tight.
Relief, production gross profit will be further improved.
IHS Chemical is also optimistic about the future prospects of polyolefin producers in other parts of the world. From 2015 to 2020, global polyolefin demand will average every year.
It grew at a rate of about 1.3 times GDP growth. Although capacity in Asia will continue to increase, the utilization rate of equipment in the region will remain high. At the same time
The drop in oil prices has improved the gross profitability of producers using naphtha as raw materials, and the days of producers in Western Europe have been better.